The Emergence Of A Multicultural Society

Ethnic diversity and the aging of Western societies have dramatically changed the potential composition of the church. Religious organizations will become ineffective if leaders conduct their pastoral care and evangelistic outreach in ways not relevant to the twenty-first century. For some denominations, the rapid pace of change seems to preclude long-range planning; crisis intervention has become both a personal and a church management strategy. However, demographic statistics that portend the shifts in population growth, composition, and geographic distribution provide a foundation for flexible and intelligent planning.

Race and Ethnic Demographics Demographers project that the proportion of the United States population that is white and non-Hispanic will decline from the present 83 percent to 65 percent of the population by the year 2010. The 12 percent of the population that is African American will remain steady; Asian and other groups will increase to 5 percent of the population; and the Hispanic population will double in size to 18 percent of the total population. According to the 1990 census, Hispanics increased by 7.7 million—more than twice the number of people added to the African-American group in the same period. The Hispanic addition was larger than the entire 1990 Asian and Pacific-Islander population ("The Top Findings from the 1990 Census," Population Today [July/August 1991]: 3–4). This increase reflects the high fertility and immigration rates of Mexican and Puerto Rican groups. Hispanics are also disproportionately young, meaning that a greater percentage of this population is in, or is entering, their prime childbearing years. American Demographics reports that the YUMies (young urban Mexicans) are eager to take the places of the American Yuppies (young urban professionals) The data clearly suggest that the United States will become a Spanish-English bilingual country in the twentieth-first century. When business leaders in the European Economic Community are asked which languages will likely become standard in the new political unit, many have surprisingly included Spanish along with English. South America is seen as a burgeoning market for European goods and services. Business interests in the United States recognize the Latin factor; the church needs to heighten its awareness as well. In fact, some American churches have begun Spanish-as-a-second-language training for their members. These church leaders are well-informed and accurately planning for the multicultural future. Social scientists have identified a demographic ?70–30 tip-point? which affects relations between population groups. For example, when in a changing neighborhood the arriving ethnic group has increased to 30 percent, intergroup conflict often results. At the present time, several cities of the United States contain more than 30 percent Hispanic populations: Large Metros with Highest Percentages of Minorities Metro Area 1990 Percent Minority Change Since 1980 San Antonio 55.7 + 2.8 Miami 52.2 +13.2 Los Angeles 50.2 +11.1 Houston 42.1 + 7.3 San Diego 34.6 + 8.5 Dallas-Ft. Worth 30.3 + 6.1 Source: "Are Two Americas Emerging?" Population Today [October 1991]: 6–8. Reflecting ?"tip-point" anxieties, eighteen states have discussed and passed ?English only? legislation. Fractious church divisions may also result from changes in the ethnic composition of the church group. Church leaders have one of two choices: either discover ways to celebrate diversity within a unified congregation or create homogeneous, but socially marginal, enclaves. The African American population will not increase their percentage of the population over the next several decades, but their numbers will continue to grow. The Asian population, although not large, is the fastest growing ethnic grouping. Filipino, Korean, Chinese, Vietnamese, and Asian Indian are the predominant groups (Bryant Robey, ?"America's Asians," American Demographics [May 1985]). Each Asian group differs from the others with regard to language, economic status, and level of education. As recent arrivals in the country, these groups welcome involvement with social organizations, including the church. Religious institutions are uniquely able to respond to immigrants' needs for pastoral care, social relationships, and orientation to American culture. This is a ?window of opportunity? for Christian ministry; it would be unfortunate indeed to ignore such an opportunity. Age Differentials Life expectancy has increased. The older population of eighty-five plus years has increased 165 percent in the past twenty-two years. By the year 2050, life expectancy for women will reach ninety years and for men, eighty-eight years. Designations for the elderly are divided into three categories to recognize differences in seniors' general health and social participation. The young-old are those aged sixty-five to seventy-four; the old-old are those seventy-five to eighty-four; the feeble-old are those eighty-five and older. According to the 1990 census, about 12.5 percent of the nation's population (31 million) were young-old; 10 million were old-old; slightly more than 3 million were feeble-old (twice the proportion of the very old people in 1960) (New York Times, Nov. 10, 1992). By far the fastest growth in the elderly population has been among the feeble-old. The young-old are mobile, active, and generally healthy. This group is beginning to express dissatisfaction with the response of the church toward them based on assumptions about their supposed lack of capacity for energetic and intelligent participation. With 76 million baby boomers on the way toward senior status, by the year 2015 approximately one fourth of the American population will be young-old. Changed assumptions, new programs, and shared leadership with today's comparatively few seniors will be practice for the elder boom tomorrow. In addition to the numbers of persons living longer, a decreasing birth rate has enlarged the proportion of those over age sixty-five (Ben J. Wattenberg, Birth Dearth: What Happens When People in Free Countries Don't Have Babies. New York: Pharos Books, 1987). Macro-level changes in the proportions of young and old in society will create similar changes in proportions in church congregations. Fewer babies mean adjustments in the church nursery, Sunday school, and family programs. Churches have often measured their effectiveness and hope for the future on the numbers of young people in the congregation. New definitions of a ?healthy? church membership will be required. A serious imbalance in the dependency ratio of children and elderly to the economically productive is anticipated as the baby boomers approach retirement age. In 1950, there was roughly one elderly person for each seven persons of working age. By the year 2030, the ratio is projected to be one elderly person for every two and a half persons of working age. Nursing home populations will more than double by 2030. Over half those residents will be eighty-five or older (American in the 21st Century: Social and Economic Support Systems [Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, 1990], 20). Important questions are being raised in the debate over rationing health care for the handicapped and the feeble old. The church cannot remain uninformed or absent from such discussions. Significant and moral decisions are being made now which will affect large percentages of the population in the decades ahead. Religious groups are a natural resource to help share the emotional and familial burdens for the dependent young as well as the old. Current housing and ministry responses to the elderly are a step in the right direction. Increased emphasis from the church on the social obligations of all citizens can mitigate the overwhelming individualism of the culture. Business leaders are concerned about the size and educational level of the next generation's labor force. With the exception of Hispanic groups, the age cohorts following the baby boomers are much smaller in number. Because Hispanics are, on average, less educated than the non-Hispanic white population, the educational challenge to provide skilled and learned workers in the next decades will be enormous (John H. Ralph and Mary J. Frase, "Drop-Outs: Doing It By The Numbers." Population Today [April 1992]: 5–6). The church should confront the challenge by providing substantive mentoring/tutoring assistance to Hispanic youth within each local area. The challenge of the twentieth-first century for the church is to be an integral part of the growing mosaic and ethnic richness of American society.